there was a time when demand for oil would go down, if the economies in industrialized nations slumped. As a consequence, the oil price would decrease, too. But now, it’s the emerging economies such as China which consume the biggest amount of oil. That way, demand stays stable, and the soaring oil price weighs down heavily on the economies in Europe.
Since its lowest point in the first quarter of 2009, when a barrel of crude oil just cost USD 34, the price has climbed higher and higher. According to Mexico, Saudi Arabia and Russia, the most reliable forecasters of oil price development in the past, this trend will continue in 2012. They expect the average price of a barrel of crude oil to reach USD 111 this year, a 15% rise year on year. This is the conclusion of a study, „What best performing forecasters think“, by Roland Berger Strategy Consultants, conducted for the fifth year in a row.
ManagementRadio talked to Arnoud van der Slot, Partner at Roland Berger Strategy Consultants in Amsterdam and author of the study about the forecast, his personal predictions and the consequences of this rise.
Ulrich Erik Hinsen